Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information

The Stabilizing Properties of Floating Exchange Rates: Some International Evidence

This paper analyzes the stabilizing properties of alternative monetary policy regimes. In practice there is a choice between two broad types of monetary policy regimes: a fixed exchange rate regime or a floating exchange rate regime. In this paper I compare exchange rate targeting with different floating exchange rate regimes: strict price level targeting, flexible price level targeting and out...

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting

A Simple Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of the Trade-off Between Fixed and Floating Exchange rates

This paper provides a complete analytical characterization of the positive and normative effects of alternative exchange rate regimes in a simple two-country sticky-price dynamic general equilibrium model with money, technology, and government spending shocks. A central question addressed is whether fixing the exchange rate prevents macroeconomic adjustment in relative prices from occurring, in...

Policy Time-Inconsistency: A Comparison of Managed Floating Exchange Rate and Controlled Exchange Rate Regimes

Some empirical and theoretical studies have emphasized on fixed exchange rate regime in controlling time inconsistency, while others consider the role of target zone regime as an important factor. Thus there is no general consensus to decide which exchange rate regime may bring about less time-inconsistency. The main purpose of this study is to investigate policy time-inconsistency in exchange ...

Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability

This paper proposes a simple chartist-fundamentalist model in which we allow for nonlinear time variation in chartists’ extrapolation rate. Estimation of the model using monthly data for the major currencies vis-a-vis the US dollar shows that the model is significant in-sample and that it has out-of-sample predictive power for some of the currencies. We investigate the power of tests of the ran...